1. Who needs a map…
It doesn’t seem like anyone in the US knows where we are, in terms of the business cycle. It is nearly an even split between votes for early, mid and late cycle.
What history has shown us is that no matter where we are, there is a slight performance edge in buying on days the market reached an all-time high.
Source: Wealth Management Marketing Research, BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy (March 2024)
Source: FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist (March 2024)
Note: Discount rate used before 1988.
2. High stress…
New research from Roy Morgan shows over 1.6 million mortgage holders (31%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to January 2024. This period included an interest rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day with the RBA raising interest rates by +0.25% to 4.35%.
The January figure represents a new record high level of mortgage holders under mortgage stress. But this proportion at risk (31%) is still below the record reached during the GFC due to the growth in the Australian mortgage market. In 2008, 35.6% of mortgage holders were in mortgage stress.
Source: Roy Morgan (March 2024)
3. Taylor vs Trump…
Taylor Swift may be the only popstar to get multiple mentions in company result conference calls. She had one of the largest percentage increases in mentions during the results period (yes, we know it’s a small base!), with even Suncorp referring to the singer.
Meanwhile Trump, unsurprisingly, didn’t prove so popular. There is a record number of elections taking place across the world this year, including the US, but mentions of elections are down on prior corresponding periods.
Source: Jarden (March 2024)
Source: Jarden (March 2024)