Insights

Research insights from the trail
Growth vs Value – Is this the turning point?

Growth vs Value – Is this the turning point?

Since the end of 2016, the market has been in a strong growth cycle until now when rotation from growth to value stocks within the market has been fierce and rapid. Could this be the start of a value phase? In this insight we explore recent market performance, future conditions which are conducive to growth or value stocks, and how to navigate changing market cycles.

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Three reasons to own Downer Group

Three reasons to own Downer Group

Downer is an Australian listed company exposed to urban infrastructure service and employs more people than Commonwealth Bank, BHP or even Telstra. In this research article, we explain why we believe Downer is a high quality business, with an undemanding valuation and some of the key catalysts that make Downer a high conviction investment for Firetrail.

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Firetrail Quarterly Update (Q2 2019)

Firetrail Quarterly Update (Q2 2019)

Firetrail Deputy Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, Blake Henricks, provides his views on the key themes driving the market in 2019 and how the Firetrail portfolio is positioned.

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Three reasons Baby Bunting is booming

Three reasons Baby Bunting is booming

Baby Bunting presents a rare opportunity to own a retailer that is growing sales and expanding margins. An unprecedented level of market consolidation in the Australian baby retail sector is allowing Baby Bunting to grow sales and profitability materially in a short space of time.

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Hey Earnings, where’s my Cash?

Hey Earnings, where’s my Cash?

Making investment decisions involves looking at many aspects of a company’s financial position. One critical component is understanding a company’s cashflow. Recurring or deteriorating cashflow issues may be symptomatic of a broader issue in the business.

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Our #1 stock pick for 2019

Our #1 stock pick for 2019

Nufarm is an Australian company that specialises in chemical crop protection globally. It produces products to help farmers protect their crops against damage caused by weeds, pests and disease. There are two key reasons we believe Nufarm is one of the most compelling opportunities in the Australian equity market today.

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Buy Hold Sell: 5 healthcare stocks under the microscrope

Buy Hold Sell: 5 healthcare stocks under the microscrope

Healthcare is often viewed as a good defensive place to invest because it is relatively insensitive to economic cycles. Over the past 12 months the healthcare index has outperformed the market by ~19% led by a stellar performance from heavyweight CSL.

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Buy Hold Sell: 5 defensive stocks

Buy Hold Sell: 5 defensive stocks

The selloff that started in early September has gathered pace to put the Australian share market into correction territory, wiping out 12 months’ worth of gains. With risks elevated, it’s time to look for defensive businesses that can grow their earnings regardless of the business cycle.

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Firetrail Quarterly Update (Q3 2018)

Firetrail Quarterly Update (Q3 2018)

Firetrail Deputy Managing Director and Portfolio Manager Blake Henricks provides his views on the key themes driving the market over the quarter to September 2018 as well as a portfolio outlook and new positions in the High Conviction strategy.

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Two golden shorting rules

Two golden shorting rules

Firetrail’s Portfolio Manager, James Miller outlines ways to obtain short exposure through managed funds in Australia, and also two of the golden rules that we follow at Firetrail when uncovering opportunities for stocks to short.

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Three reasons shorting can benefit your investment returns

Three reasons shorting can benefit your investment returns

Shorting opportunities are abundant – every year there are stocks that fall, despite the return of the overall market. By researching and identifying the catalysts for these stock declines, shorting can be a significant contributor to alpha in your portfolio.

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Timing is everything

Timing is everything

Is timing the equity market a lucrative investment strategy? If you time it to perfection, the answer is certainly yes. However, in practice the information and skill required to time the market with the accuracy required to add value consistently is challenging at best.

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Why technology is making or breaking companies

Why technology is making or breaking companies

Terms such as big data, artificial intelligence and machine learning are being used more frequently by companies around the globe. While many are talking technology, in our experience, the winners will continue to be focused management teams using data to drive shareholder returns.

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Why Steel Stocks are the Big Winners from Chinese Policy

Why Steel Stocks are the Big Winners from Chinese Policy

Steel making margins have almost tripled off the 2016 lows driven by China’s supply side reform policies. We strongly believe that the higher steel mill margins are sustainable and we see compelling investment opportunities in the steel sector.

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Why M&A is set to boom in Australia

Why M&A is set to boom in Australia

The GFC was a decade ago. Since then, companies have focused on cost control and balance sheet repair to drive shareholder returns. From here on, we strongly believe that companies around Australia are set to embark on M&A to grow faster.

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