Three things that got the team talking this week - Firetrail Investments

Weekly insights from the Trail

Three things that got the team talking this week

June 7, 2024June 14th, 2024

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1. Financial times…

RedBridge Group conducted an interesting survey on Australian consumer finance. They asked consumers how many more interest rate increases they could handle before they would need to sell their home, with 29% of respondents saying just one more. They also grouped respondents by preferred political party, and location. Green voters seem to be feeling the most pain, and those in outer suburbs versus inner city and rural areas.

Source: RedBridge Group (June 2024)

2. Young bull…

The average bull market lasts 61 months, so we may still be in the ‘calf era’ of the current bull market. The past 12 bull markets lasted more than 5 years long on average. It looks like Americans have seen this data. More Americans than ever own shares, with nearly 60% of US households owning shares. S3 Global Opportunities Fund (Managed Fund) holding Interactive Brokers has certainly attracted some of these new traders as customers.

Source: Craigs (June 2024)

Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finance (June 2024)

3. Structural change…

It’s been over 4 years since Covid entered our lives, so we are calling a structural shift in downtown or CBD activity in the US. Data from downtowns across the US show that mobile phone activity at more popular tourist locations like Las Vegas (97%) and Miami (82%) has gotten close to 2019 levels. But the more residential areas have struggled. San Francisco is at 57% of pre-pandemic levels and Chicago is at 52%.

Source: University of Toronto, Downtown Recovery, Apollo Chief Economist (June 2024)
Note: The recovery metrics on this website are based on a sample of location-based mobility data derived from cellphones. Metrics are computed by counting the number of unique visitors in a city’s downtown area in the specified time period, and then dividing it by the standardised number of unique visitors during the equivalent time period in 2019.

Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email service@pinnacleinvestment.com

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