Three things that got the team talking this week - Firetrail Investments

Weekly insights from the Trail

Three things that got the team talking this week

November 3, 2023November 10th, 2023

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1. Shopping season…

We had strong spending data released in both Australia and the US this week.

In the US personal spending data rose +0.7% m/m in September while personal income rose only +0.3%, showing consumers are spending beyond their means. US consumers spent about US$60 billion worth of savings to fuel consumption last month, up from the pace in August (US$50 billion). Barclays estimate excess savings remain around $1.19 trillion, so there’s still room for more Christmas shopping!

Meanwhile in Australia retail sales are booming, up +0.9% in September, the fastest pace in eight months. Analysts had expected 0.3% growth in the month. The warmer weather has been blamed for our extra retail therapy as we hit the department stores en masse. As well as our thriving working age population, with growth annualising >3%.

Source: Barrenjoey (October 2023)

Source: Jarden (October 2023)

2. Wait for the ending…

One for the dealers out there. We knew the Aussie market traded a large proportion of its volume on the closing auction. But data from Macquarie below shows how strongly it has grown – from around 20% in 2018, to around 30% now. European markets are also seeing growth in the closing auction volume. But the proportion traded on close in the US continues to hang around 10-15% of the days volume.

Source: Macquarie EE (October 2023)

Source: Macquarie EE (October 2023)

3. Silly season…

Since 1950, November and December have proven to be the best two-month period of the year on the S&P500, so it is set to get better from here…58 days left in 2023.

Source: S&P500 (October 2023)

Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email service@pinnacleinvestment.com

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