1. Consumer check in…
UK shoppers spent up in January. British retail sales jumped by the most in almost 3 years in January, +3.4% from December, much stronger than the median forecast of a 1.5% increase in a Reuters poll of economists.
CNY travel topped pre-Covid levels, with some 474 million tourists taking domestic trips in China, +19% from 2019.
Macau’s gaming tax take has jumped 365% y/y to US$911 million in January. This follows the easing of border restrictions on 8 January 2023. Meanwhile New Jersey Sports betting hit an all-time record in January. Combined gambling revenues for the month came to $559.1 million. And Nevada sportsbooks took in over $185.6 million in wagers on the Chiefs vs 49ers super bowl. This was 21% higher than the prior year, and beat the all-time record of $179.8 million in 2022.
Source: China’s Ministry of Transport, China Railway, Bloomberg (February 2024)
2. Building backlog…
We are watching the IPO backlog continue to build – causing significant pent-up demand for exits for late-stage investors. Reddit filed its IPO prospectus to list on the NYSE this week. The below chart tracks the pent-up IPOs in the US, but we suspect there is a similar pattern in Australia.
Source: Q4 2023 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor (February 2024)
3. The cost of food…
It has been over 30 years since food took up this much of Americans income, according to the US Labor Department. Americans are spending 11.3% of their disposable income on food. Don’t expect chocolate to get any cheaper either – cocoa prices hit a 46-year record in February.
Australia hasn’t been let off. You have to go back to the late 1980’s to get comparable rises in Employee households living costs. They peaked at 9.6% y/y in the June 2023 quarter.
Source: Agriculture Department (February 2024)