Three things that got the team talking this week - Firetrail Investments

Weekly insights from the Trail

Three things that got the team talking this week

September 22, 2023September 29th, 2023

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1. Rate watch…

The rate ceiling is in sight. And historically the Fed pauses for about 5-6 months before pivoting down. We will have to wait to see if July was the final Fed hike…

Source: Macrobond, ING (September 2023)

Has the Fed gone hiking for the last time?…

Source: Switzerland Tourism (May 2021)

2. Spending spree…

Despite the increased cost of living, retail punters seem to not be deterred, with retail investor flows exceeding 2021 highs according to Vanda Research. And inflation-adjusted consumer spending is continuing to rise. Meanwhile companies are splashing their cash on buybacks.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via St. Louis Fed (September 2023)

Source: BofA Global Quantitative Strategy. MSCI, Exshare (September 2023)

3. Coming and going…

We have spoken at length about the historic level of immigration Australia is currently experiencing. But we are also seeing an equally impressive level of overseas migration by Aussies. Annualised net overseas migration declined from 247,620 in 2019 to minus 94,326 in 1Q21 and has since risen to a record 454,361 in 1Q23. It was an average 218,131 in the ten years prior to the pandemic.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (September 2023)

Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email service@pinnacleinvestment.com

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