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1. Migration is not moderating…

Australia welcomed more than 2,000 migrants a day in the year to September. And January 2024 FYTD long-term net arrivals in Australia are 130k ahead of FY23 levels. The surge in migration arrivals has largely been driven by international students and workers on temporary visas.

The record net annual increase of almost 550,000 comes despite the Albanese Government’s expectation to bring migration down from 510,000 to 375,000 a year by June 2024, which was laid out in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook.

Similarly in the US – it is immigration, not net births, that is driving their population growth, for now.

Net permanent and long-term movements continue to annualise at ~550k in Australia

Arrivals vs departures in Australia

US population growth – migration key driver

Source: Apollo


2. Cost of goods…

There is a lot of scrutiny on Australian supermarkets currently. Interesting to note the price gap between branded products and private label (home brand) has more than doubled since the pandemic.


3. Aging like a [French] wine…

The population of older people (defined as those aged 65 years or more) in the EU will increase significantly by 2050. The cohort of older people is set to grow from 90.5 million at the start of 2019, to 129.8 million by 2050. During this same period, the number of people in the EU aged 75-84 years is projected to expand by 56.1%, while the number aged 65-74 years is projected to increase by 16.6%. By contrast, the latest projections suggest that there will be 13.5% fewer people aged less than 55 years living in the EU by 2050.

Source: Eurostat


This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

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