Three things that got the team talking this week - Firetrail Investments

Weekly insights from the Trail

Three things that got the team talking this week

June 2, 2023June 9th, 2023

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1. Staying in aeroplane mode…

High Conviction portfolio holding, Qantas, held its first investor day since the pandemic started. It showed consumers are still counting travel as a top priority. The intent to travel remains significantly above pre-COVID levels, with 2x more customers planning to fly domestically in the next 12 months, and +80% planning to fly internationally in the next 12 months.

In the domestic market, both Qantas and Virgin are showing discipline on their capacity levels to maintain pricing, which is creating a substantially larger profit pool for domestic airlines, as seen in the chart below.

Source: Qantas
Companies mentioned are illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security.

2. The migrants are ‘ere…

Australian Visas for both international students and workers are well up on previous periods. Good news for finding weekend babysitters. Not good news for winning the rental battle!

Source: Department of Home Affairs, UBS

Source: Macquarie (Data range: Feb 2020 – May 2023)

3. Making sense of the market…

The first chart below shows a dot plot of S&P500 daily moves in 2022 and 2023. There’s a whole lot less purple (or 2% or more) moves this year.

And for some unexplained reason, historically even-dated days outperform odd-dated days on the S&P. We are happy to hear any reasons you’ve got as to why!

Source: Craigs

Source: Craigs

Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email service@pinnacleinvestment.com

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