Three things that got the team talking this week - Firetrail Investments

Weekly insights from the Trail

Three things that got the team talking this week

March 4, 2022March 11th, 2022

Feature Image

1. State of the Island…

Biden gave his State of the Union address this week. And below we have provided a State of the Island (Australia) in 4 charts:

Australian household consumption rose 6.3% q/q in Q4, and is above the previous peak in Q4 2019
Australia’s GDP rose 3.4% q/q and 4.2% y/y in Q4 2021. GDP per capita is above the 2012-19 trendline
Corporate profitability in Australia hasn’t missed a beat through Covid
The monthly proxy for Australian inflation strengthened in February, and sits around a 10 year high

Source: Macquarie, ABS

2. It’s all Gucci…

There’s been a range of sanctions placed on Russia recently. But it was the gap in sanctioned products that caught our eye. Italian luxury goods and Belgium diamonds aren’t included in the sanctioned items, and can still be sold in Russia.

See the bar chart below for the other big markets with Russian exposure.

Source: Twitter

Russian share of global…

Source: Firetrail, Goldman Sachs

3. Pasta la vista, baby…

It might be time to panic buy the pasta again! Wheat extended its meteoric rally this week. It closed limit up for the 4th straight day, above $11.00 a bushel. To give you more context, on March 2 twice the entire wheat crop was bid limit up. The projected US Department of Agriculture 2021/2022 production of soft red winter wheat is 361 million bushels. At one point in the day, 750 million bushels of May Chicago wheat were bid limit up!

Bloomberg reports traders have also been buying corn (up to a 9 year high) and soybeans (at record highs) in an effort to shore up supplies as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg, Firetrail

Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email service@pinnacleinvestment.com

This communication is for general information only. It is not intended as a securities recommendation or statement of opinion intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to investment. It has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Any persons relying on this information should obtain professional advice before doing so. Past performance is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of future performance.

Whilst Firetrail, PFSL and Pinnacle believe the information contained in this communication is reliable, no warranty is given as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk. Subject to any liability which cannot be excluded under the relevant laws, Firetrail, PFSL and Pinnacle disclaim all liability to any person relying on the information contained in this communication in respect of any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage), however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information. This disclaimer extends to any entity that may distribute this communication.

Any opinions and forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Firetrail and its representatives on the basis of information available as at the date of publication and may later change without notice. Any projections contained in this presentation are estimates only and may not be realised in the future.

Unauthorised use, copying, distribution, replication, posting, transmitting, publication, display, or reproduction in whole or in part of the information contained in this communication is prohibited without obtaining prior written permission from Firetrail. Pinnacle and its associates may have interests in financial products and may receive fees from companies referred to during this communication.

This may contain the trade names or trademarks of various third parties, and if so, any such use is solely for illustrative purposes only. All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with, endorsement by, or association of any kind between them and Firetrail.