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1. State of the Island…

Biden gave his State of the Union address this week. And below we have provided a State of the Island (Australia) in 4 charts:

  1. Australian household consumption rose 6.3% q/q in Q4, and is above the previous peak in Q4 2019
  2. Australia’s GDP rose 3.4% q/q and 4.2% y/y in Q4 2021. GDP per capita is above the 2012-19 trendline
  3. Corporate profitability in Australia hasn’t missed a beat through Covid
  4. The monthly proxy for Australian inflation strengthened in February, and sits around a 10 year high

Source: Macquarie, ABS

2. It’s all Gucci…

There’s been a range of sanctions placed on Russia recently. But it was the gap in sanctioned products that caught our eye. Italian luxury goods and Belgium diamonds aren’t included in the sanctioned items, and can still be sold in Russia.

See the bar chart below for the other big markets with Russian exposure.

Source: Twitter


Russian share of global…

Source: Firetrail, Goldman Sachs

3. Pasta la vista, baby…

It might be time to panic buy the pasta again! Wheat extended its meteoric rally this week. It closed limit up for the 4th straight day, above $11.00 a bushel. To give you more context, on March 2 twice the entire wheat crop was bid limit up. The projected US Department of Agriculture 2021/2022 production of soft red winter wheat is 361 million bushels. At one point in the day, 750 million bushels of May Chicago wheat were bid limit up!

Bloomberg reports traders have also been buying corn (up to a 9 year high) and soybeans (at record highs) in an effort to shore up supplies as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg, Firetrail


This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email

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