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1. Ready for take-off…

Noise is building around the need for China to stimulate their economy. Looking at travel, while domestic flights are back around pre-Covid levels, international has a very long way to go. As China does get back to more normal international travel levels, this will put more pressure on the already tight oil market. US crude oil supply is currently sitting at its lowest level in over 40 years.

Source: Financial Times (September 2023)

Source: Evans (September 2023)

2. We know guac is extra…

For the first time in 20 years, the US is importing more from Mexico than China. And this could have something to do with their ever-increasing appetite for Avocados! American imports of avocados have increased 1300% since 2000, to more than 2.5 billion pounds a year. And did you know Mexico accounts for almost half the worlds avocado exports! The Association of Mexican Avocado Producers and Packers and Exporters (APEAM) has surpassed record avocado export sales to the U.S. so far in 2023.

Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg (September 2023)

Source: US Dept. Of Commerce (September 2023)

3. More Aussie Aussie Aussies…

Australia is booming. By number of Aussies! Australia is currently going through a record population growth, driven by record migration. We are on a population path to exceed 1.2% annual growth through to 2050. An outlier versus the slowing others will experience over this horizon, like Japan, China, and Germany. And this fast migration is also slowing the ageing of our population. By 2050, the median age of Australians is expected to be 41.8 years, 5 years younger than the OECD. The strong population growth has helped support our GDP, and our employment, with 65,000 jobs added in August and the participation rate hitting its best ever level at 67%. But the number of Aussies working multiple jobs keeps going up. It’s roughly 1 in 15 of us.

Source: Macquarie (September 2023)

Source: UBS (September 2023)

Source: ABS, Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy (September 2023)


This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email

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