Three things that got the team talking this week - Firetrail Investments

Weekly insights from the Trail

Three things that got the team talking this week

April 12, 2024April 19th, 2024

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1. Inflation interpretation…

When we look across the developed markets, the US has now become an outlier as its inflation has bounced higher, as can be seen in the first chart below. And it is the sticky services inflation that is causing central banks the most stress, shown in the second chart.

Source: Macrobond, Antipodean Macro (April 2024)

Source: Macrobond, Antipodean Macro (April 2024)

2. The United States of charts…

In the US right now:

Office vacancies are at their highest on record,
Restaurant sales and traffic over the last 2 months are at their weakest since they were closed (!) during Covid, and the GFC before that, and
The average household carries 26% more credit card debt today compared to the 10-year average amount. Average household credit card debt is around $9,880, versus a longer term average of $7,816.

Source: Moody’s (April 2024)

Source: Craigs, National Restaurant Association (April 2024)

Source: Federal Reserve Board, BofA Global Research (April 2024)

3. Song selection…

Coachella begins in Palms Springs this weekend, kicking off the 23rd running of the music and arts festival. And it is interesting to note that despite the shift to streaming from buying physical CDs and records, global recorded music industry revenues have never been higher.

Source: IFPI (April 2024)

Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

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