Three things that got the team talking this week - Firetrail Investments

Weekly insights from the Trail

Three things that got the team talking this week

October 18, 2024October 28th, 2024

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1. US airlines are flying

United Airlines delivered a very strong result driven by better domestic pricing, stronger corporate revenues (+13% in September) and a buyback of 7% of shares on issue.

The stock is up 83% in the past year, most of which has occurred in the past quarter.

The strong results provide a positive readthrough of demand conditions for Qantas.

Source: United, Google (October 2024)

2. JP Morgan pivoting to a soft landing?

Here are a few quotes from JP Morgan leaders over the past 6 months:

7th August 2024 CEO Jamie Dimon: “Odds of a soft landing for the US economy are around 35% to 40%.”
20th Sept 2024 CEO Jamie Dimon: “I am a little more sceptical than other people. I give it lower odds.”
11th Oct 2024 CFO Jeremy Barnum: Current economic results are “consistent with a soft landing.”

Source: JPMorgan, Firetrail (October 2024)

3. Reading a hurricane chart

Here at chart of the week, we love reading and making charts.

Two interesting points are:

Multiple organisations make forecasts about the likely path. The NHC (National Hurricane Centre) make their own predictions.
The size of the circle reflects larger uncertainty.

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Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

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