What got the team talking this week - Firetrail Investments

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Weekly insights from the Trail

What got the team talking this week

April 3, 2025

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Trump Turns Up the Tariffs

Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs are the major news of the day. On a trade-weighted basis, tariffs look to be >20%, which is the highest level in ~100 years! Tariffs are set at 10% across-the-board on all imports, as well as more severe ‘reciprocal tariffs’. All up the effective tariff rate has been set significantly higher than market expectations.

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (April 2025)

Wallets versus worries

Australian consumer spending expectations have moderated over the March quarter, though high-income earners still expect to spend more than 25% extra over the next 12 months. Travel is top of mind, with all income groups lifting their spending expectations for international holidays.

Source: UBS Evidence Lab (April 2025)

Meanwhile in the US, we heard Lululemon talking to a weaker consumer environment in light of uncertainty around tariff policy. Interestingly, the latest data shows consumer sentiment among republican voters is holding up, and more pessimistic consumer sentiment is isolated to democratic and independent voters.

Source: University of Michigan – Consumer Sentiment Survey (April 2025)

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Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email service@pinnacleinvestment.com

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