What got the team talking this week

Weekly insights from the Trail

May 1, 2025May 8th, 2025

RBA rate cuts on the radar…

Annual inflation has returned to the RBA’s 2–3% target band for the first time since 2021. With trimmed mean CPI also easing, markets are now pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut at the May 20th meeting — and around five cuts by year-end.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RBA (May 2025)

Confession season incoming…

Earnings risk is starting to rise. Research from Goldman Sachs shows that to hit FY 2025 consensus earnings, the average ASX 200 Industrial would need to deliver its strongest second half earnings skew in two decades. This suggests the market could see a wave of earnings cuts in the upcoming “confession season” ahead of August results.

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (May 2025)

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Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email service@pinnacleinvestment.com

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Weekly insights from the Trail