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1. Big spenders…

US retail sales came in this week +1.7% for October, above the consensus expectation of +1.4%, and the biggest rise since March. It looks like the higher PPI is being passed through in the form of higher prices, but also suggests consumers are determined as pandemic-support payments ended for US households in the month. Online shopping posted the biggest relative gain for the month, up 4%, and >10% y/y (Nonstore Retailers in chart below). Also interesting to consider the breakdown of sales – post lockdowns you may have thought about buying a new outfit, but seems we still need more electronics!

Sales are expected to remain strong as we head into the Thanksgiving shopping period, and then onto Christmas.

2. Housing demand…

The NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) Housing market index hit a 6 month high this week, and US housing under construction, and Housing authorised but not started, are both at their highest levels in over 30 years. More good news for portfolio companies James Hardie and BlueScope Steel.

3. Post Covid grass is greener…

The ‘quit rate’ in the US and UK, and other developed economies, is hitting its highest ever levels. This is helping job postings surge. It’s good news for portfolio company Seek, who this week at their AGM upgraded FY22 revenue, EBITDA and NPAT guidance to the top end of their range.

Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

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