Skip to main content

1. Keeping our finger on the pulses…

Global agriculture nutrient supplier businesses Nutrien and CF Industries reported this week. And they gave us good insights into the state of the global agriculture market.

They are seeing global stocks of ag products remaining at decade lows for grains (wheat/corn) into 2023, and near lows for oilseeds. And they believe it will take several years of “normal” conditions to rebuild these stock positions. They are also seeing grower margins remaining elevated into 2023, supporting the idea that farmers can afford to pay higher prices for nutrients, and as such there shouldn’t be significant demand destruction. Additionally, forward prices for energy (i.e. gas) are likely to support cycle high margins for key fertilisers through 2025.

This bodes well for the agriculture names across both the Australian and Global funds.

Source: Nutrien

2. Big spenders…

US personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income has dropped back below pre-Covid levels. But US households still have around $1.5 trillion in net savings accumulated since the pandemic began.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Macrobond

3. Precedented unprecedent…

If you thought 2020 had some unprecedented events, 2022 is giving it a run for its money.

The number of months with the S&P 500 up or down at least 7.5% is at the highest levels in over 80 years.

Up until last week there was a total of 243 policy rate hikes in the year to date, or more than 1 hike per trading day.

And China is importing more Malaysian crude oil than what Malaysia produce!

Source: Evans

Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, IEA


This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email

This communication is for general information only. It is not intended as a securities recommendation or statement of opinion intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to investment. It has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Any persons relying on this information should obtain professional advice before doing so. Past performance is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of future performance.

Whilst Firetrail, PFSL and Pinnacle believe the information contained in this communication is reliable, no warranty is given as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk. Subject to any liability which cannot be excluded under the relevant laws, Firetrail, PFSL and Pinnacle disclaim all liability to any person relying on the information contained in this communication in respect of any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage), however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information. This disclaimer extends to any entity that may distribute this communication.

Any opinions and forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Firetrail and its representatives on the basis of information available as at the date of publication and may later change without notice. Any projections contained in this presentation are estimates only and may not be realised in the future.

Unauthorised use, copying, distribution, replication, posting, transmitting, publication, display, or reproduction in whole or in part of the information contained in this communication is prohibited without obtaining prior written permission from Firetrail. Pinnacle and its associates may have interests in financial products and may receive fees from companies referred to during this communication.

This may contain the trade names or trademarks of various third parties, and if so, any such use is solely for illustrative purposes only. All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with, endorsement by, or association of any kind between them and Firetrail.