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1. Back on the trendline…

Shopify fell over 14% after they announced they were cutting 10% of their workforce this week. Turns out the Covid induced surge in e-commerce spending hasn’t lasted as long as they hoped. Shopify, and many other online retailers, had bet that Covid would permanently shift the channel mix away from physical retail. But it is clear that bet did not pay off for them. E-commerce adoption is back on the trend line.

Source: US Census Bureau

2. Tap and go keeps going…

Whilst e-commerce may be back on trend, results from Mastercard and Visa this week showed consumers haven’t stopped tapping their credit cards. Visa saw payments volume +12% y/y, with cross border volumes +40% as travel volume surpassed 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic began. Mastercard also said they expect generally resilient consumer spending through the remainder of 2022.

Source: Mastercard SpendingPulse

3. Where has the gas gone…

Nord Stream 1 is the single biggest gas pipeline between Russia and western Europe. We discussed the maintenance work on the pipeline in our Chart of the week earlier this month (watch it here). The news this week is that Russia has curbed gas flows from 40% to 20%, citing a ‘maintenance’ issue with a turbine, causing European natural gas prices to spike once again. Meanwhile Siemens Energy has commented that they have no damage reports from Gazprom on the Nord Stream 1 turbines.

EU energy ministers reached an agreement this week requiring voluntary reduction of gas consumption by mid-September of 15%. The EU could make the requirement mandatory should conservation targets not be reached.

German business confidence has deteriorated to the worst level since early on in the pandemic, and economists believe they are on the brink of a recession. Could they be the first European domino to fall…​​​


This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email

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