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1. Bringing home the Turkey…

Happy Black Friday. May the sales be ever in your favour. Australians spent $6 billion in the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales last year. And the Australian Retailers Association expects shoppers will spend $6.2 billion over the 4-day period this year.

And it looks like Americans are good at spending too. Credit card balances are up, savings are down, and inventory is ready to be cleared.

Source: NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel, Equifax

 

Source: NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel, Equifax

 

Source: The Daily Shot

2. Flying high…

Qantas came out with another upgrade this week, as they are yet to see any weakness in demand. We spoke about their strong profit forecasts last month on COTW (check it out here). They are now expecting 1H23 profit before tax to be in the range of $1.35bn – $1.45 billion, versus the full year FY19 PBT coming in at $1.2bn. This comes as departures have only reached ~80% of pre-Covid levels at Sydney airport. Webjet also announced last week they are seeing domestic bookings at 85% of pre-Covid levels, and international at 72%.

Source: BITRE, flightradar24.com, Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy
Illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security.

3. It’s coming home…

No not the World Cup. Well maybe…the Americans technically still have a chance. More likely is the most anticipated recession ever!

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Disclaimer

This article is prepared by Firetrail Investments Pty Limited (‘Firetrail’) (ABN 98 622 377 913, AFSL 516821) as the investment manager of the Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund (ARSN 624 136 045), the Firetrail Absolute Return Fund (ARSN 624 135 879), the Firetrail Australian Small Companies Fund (ARSN 638 792 113) and the Firetrail S3 Global Opportunities Fund (ARSN 653 717 625) (‘the Funds’). Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ('PFSL') (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Fund. PFSL is not licensed to provide financial product advice. PFSL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited (‘Pinnacle’) (ABN 22 100 325 184). The Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’) of the relevant Fund are available via the links below. Any potential investor should consider the PDS and TMD before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in, the Fund.

Links to the Product Disclosure Statement: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

Links to the Target Market Determination: WHT3810AU, WHT5134AU, WHT3093AU, WHT7794AU

For historic TMD’s please contact Pinnacle client service Phone 1300 010 311 or Email service@pinnacleinvestment.com

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