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September 10 2021

1. Excess cash…

There is $250bn excess cash across both consumer ($100bn) and business ($150bn) that has built up in Australia since Covid started. Lockdowns only see the deposits grow. Looks like we are set for some good Christmas presents this year! 

2. Lockdown labour…

Payroll jobs in NSW have clearly been the weakest across Australia as we continue in lockdown. They have fallen 8.7% since the peak, slightly bigger than the fall during the initial lockdown in March/April last year. Payroll jobs in Victoria are yet to fully reflect the lockdown in that state.

ANZ’s job ads series for Australia declined just 2.5% m/m in August and was 3.7% lower than the level in June. This resilience is shown in the SEEK Job Ads data, showing evidence of labour hoarding.

Source: ABS, SEEK, Macquarie Macro Strategy

3. Retail sales trends…

July retail sales declined -2.7% m/m and -3.1% y/y as impacts of widespread lockdowns were realised. Meanwhile online sales reached a record monthly high of $3.7bn. Total online penetration has also reached record levels at 12.6%.