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August 6 2021

 
 
1. Lockdown impact on jobs…

Weekly payrolls data showed a sharp fall in the number of paid jobs over the fortnight to 17 July. Unsurprisingly, the sharpest falls were in New South Wales and inner cities. Looking at Indeed job ad postings, they are still way above pre-covid levels, but dipped from the lockdown impact in NSW.

Source: ABS, Macquarie

 

2. House price surge…

Property prices in Australia’s capital cities have defied Covid lockdowns over the past 12 months, with Sydney home prices rising 18.2%, Brisbane 15.8% and Melbourne 10.4%. Australian dwelling values jumped 16.1% over the past year, the fastest annual growth in >17 years. And despite being in lockdown, Sydney house prices rose 2% in the month of July.

Globally, house prices rose 9.4% in the March quarter according to OECD, the fastest growth in at least 30 years. Looking at the chart below, the boom is across a record % of countries.

 

3. Buy, buy, buy…

As we close out US reporting season, and look ahead to Australia’s, interesting to note the first 342 companies of the S&P500 to report Q2 saw 88.4% EPS growth on 28.8% revenue growth. That has seen consensus S&P500 Fy21/22 EPS forecasts revised up from $169.68/$204.05 respectively at the start of the year, to $194.18/$223.77 now. Of the 1,000 largest US stocks, Wall Street analysts have the highest proportion of buy/overweight ratings in nearly 20 years. In Australia, 49.3% of current recommendations are BUY.