July 16 2021
1. Commodity price rebound…
To put it in perspective, it’s been the biggest commodity price rebound from an economic downturn in more than a century, beating the 1933 rebound from the Great Depression.
Source: EAP, Bloomberg
2. Building still booming…
Record number of houses being built and record renovations.
3. Jobs vs wage growth…
Australia’s unemployment rate declined 0.2% to 4.9% in June versus consensus expectations for 5.1%. That is the equal lowest level since before the GFC, and continues to print much lower than RBA forecasts. Employment rose 29.1k m/m despite a fall in Victoria as it endured a 2-week lockdown from late May.
The share of Aussie workers expecting higher pay over the next year also rose and is consistent with a modest rise in annual wages growth towards 2%.
Source: ABS, Macquarie Macro Strategy
Source: ABS, Melbourne Institute, Macquarie Macro Strategy