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July 16 2021

1. Commodity price rebound…

To put it in perspective, it’s been the biggest commodity price rebound from an economic downturn in more than a century, beating the 1933 rebound from the Great Depression.

Source: EAP, Bloomberg

2. Building still booming…

Record number of houses being built and record renovations.

3. Jobs vs wage growth…

Australia’s unemployment rate declined 0.2% to 4.9% in June versus consensus expectations for 5.1%. That is the equal lowest level since before the GFC, and continues to print much lower than RBA forecasts. Employment rose 29.1k m/m despite a fall in Victoria as it endured a 2-week lockdown from late May.

The share of Aussie workers expecting higher pay over the next year also rose and is consistent with a modest rise in annual wages growth towards 2%.

Source: ABS, Macquarie Macro Strategy

Source: ABS, Melbourne Institute, Macquarie Macro Strategy