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July 2 2021

1. The hiring frenzy…

Setting aside recent lockdowns, ABS data of job vacancies through May 2021 showed a hiring frenzy, with the lowest number of unemployed per job vacancy since records began in 1983. 22% of firms had job vacancies, up from 14% in November 2019. Labour availability remained the most significant constraint on output for a high share of firms.

Source: ABS, Indeed, Bell Potter

Source: ABS, Indeed, Bell Potter

2. It’s tax time…

Growth in Australian company tax revenue has increased significantly amid the sharp increase in commodity prices and resource exports. Total tax receipts for the 11 months to May were $8.5bn higher than expected at the May Budget. This should help the Covid-support stretched government budget.

3. Electricity prices have lost their spark…

We’ve found something going down post Covid – electricity prices! Wholesale prices are down ~58% from the 2019 average & <$70MWh for the first time since 2015.  With heavy investment in renewables such as wind and solar (subsidised by Govt), we don’t expect things to change anytime soon – causing issues for incumbent energy suppliers such as AGL.

Source: Australian Energy Regulator