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April 30 2021


1. More homebuilding…

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index of property values climbed 12% in February from a year earlier, the biggest jump since 2006. That followed an 11.2% gain in January. And with most of the US homebuilders quarterly results released, what’s been surprising is the ongoing strength in new home sales through the March quarter. Reporting to date has seen orders up 30%+ on the prior Mar-qtr, with typically a 4-6 month lag from conversion of a new home order to start.

This data highlights upside to starts numbers in the 2H of CY21, consistent with what PM, Ramoun Lazar, recently discussed in the Firetrail Analyst Series – see the video here.

2. Inflation watch…

Will inflation be the word of the year for 2021!? 2020 and all its ‘unprecedented’ events are seeming further and further away!

The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey had the largest 2 month increase in the history of the data, and is now at an all-time high. Similarly, Q1 earnings calls including inflation chat had the biggest increase since one broker started tracking this in 2004.


3. Shopping habits…

Latest CBA spending data to 23 April is showing spending up ~27% on pre-covid 2019 levels.

Online spending is still growing at a much faster pace than 2019, suggesting some of the spending behaviour shifts in 2020 are sticking. Good to see some of the alcohol trends of 2020 didn’t stick! We are heading back towards ‘normal’ 2019 levels for that category spend.